Prepared for you by Randy Dunham
September 29, 2026
THE PRINT
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hits 5.23% — highest since 2007.
THE CHART(S) / DATA
The 10-year Treasury yield is one of the most important numbers in global finance. During the September 16 Fed press conference, Chair Warsh called the 10-year Treasury the “most important asset anywhere in the world.”
The 10-year yield serves as a benchmark for borrowing costs and asset valuations across the financial system.
1/ Borrowing costs.
→ The 10-year serves as a benchmark for long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates.
→ When the 10-year rises, borrowing money to buy a home often becomes more expensive.
2/ Asset valuations.
→ The 10-year also serves as a reference point for valuing stocks, bonds, and other financial assets. Investors use interest rates to discount future cash flows.
→ When rates rise, those future cash flows are worth less today, all else equal.
Here’s something interesting: The 10-year yield has been climbing alongside the probability of a Fed rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting.
Just a week ago, the odds of a rate hike were 58%. Today, they’re 70%.
Over the same period, the 10-year yield has risen 5.95%.
The two don't always move together, but they have been moving higher in tandem recently.
Takeaway: The 10-year is worth watching because it influences borrowing costs, asset valuations, and expectations for Fed policy. Its recent rise has coincided with higher rate-hike probabilities, but whether that translates into further pressure on stocks is another question.
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Material, data, and information in this newsletter are for informational purposes only. This is not tax, legal, or investment advice, and does not constitute a suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell securities. TTI believes this information is reliable but does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Hike odds moving from 58% to 70% while the 10-year sits at 5.23% is correlation, not a valuation rule. Discount rates matter, but treating FedWatch as a mechanical floor under equities skips the part where earnings and buybacks still have to clear a higher hurdle.