Prepared for you by Randy Dunham

September 24, 2026

THE PRINT

Less than 50% of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 200-day moving average. So far this cycle, that’s been a bullish thing.

THE CHART(S) / DATA

Less than 50% of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 200-day moving average.

The 200-day SMA is widely used as a long-term trend gauge. So another way to read this is that less than 50% of stocks are in an uptrend.

Two points on this:

Since 2023, the majority of stocks have been above their 200-day SMA, more specifically, about 80% of the time. That makes these periods of weakness fairly rare.
More importantly, since 2023, instances where less than 50% of stocks are above their 200-day SMA have tended to mark decent buying points.

Below is a look at S&P 500 performance after the first cross below 50% since 2023. Signals are de-clustered by 20 trading days:

Three points on this:

The average and median S&P 500 return is positive across every time horizon.
The hit rate is above 50% across every time horizon.
The 3- and 6-month hit rates are especially strong at 95% and 100%.

Takeaway: Although it doesn’t sound bullish, the data has shown that a cross below 50% has been more useful as a buying signal than a reason to sell. There have been exceptions like Q3 2023 and Q1 2025 — both saw further selling after the signal. But overall, the data has favored positive S&P 500 returns over the following 1 week to 6 months.

THE TAPE

THE HIGHS AND LOWS

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Material, data, and information in this newsletter are for informational purposes only. This is not tax, legal, or investment advice, and does not constitute a suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell securities. TTI believes this information is reliable but does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

📊 The Daily Print - September 24, 2026