Prepared for you by Randy Dunham
September 23, 2026
THE PRINT
The 100-day relative return spread between semiconductors and the S&P 500 is back to its long-term average.
THE CHART(S) / DATA
The chart above shows the trailing 100-day relative return spread between semiconductors (SMH) and the S&P 500 (SPY) from 2006 to today.
Three points on this:
Over a 100-day period, semiconductors have historically outperformed the S&P 500 by 3.9% on average.
Since 2006, the spread has reached 3 standard deviations above its average twice (Q2 2024 & Q2 2026).
Over the last 100 days, the spread has fallen back to its long-term average.
This makes the recent strength in the semiconductor ratio look interesting:
Although the ratio peaked in June, it has since found a local bottom and is now making new 50-day highs.
Takeaway: The recent pullback in semiconductors gave the group a chance to reset. On an intermediate-term time horizon (100 days), the recent outperformance in semiconductors may have more room to run.
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Material, data, and information in this newsletter are for informational purposes only. This is not tax, legal, or investment advice, and does not constitute a suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell securities. TTI believes this information is reliable but does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.