Prepared for you by Randy Dunham
October 6, 2026
THE PRINT
Brazil's EWZ just saw its biggest 1-day gain in more than 6 years.
THE CHART(S) / DATA
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) surged over 12.50% on Monday after the presidential election results.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate, finished ahead of Lula in the first round. The result caught the market off guard as just a month ago, Polymarket showed a higher chance of Lula winning.
Bolsonaro is viewed as the more business-friendly candidate, and Brazilian stocks surged following his first round victory.
EWZ has only gained 12.5% or more in a single day five other times:
A few points on this:
The other signals came during major crises, including the 2008 GFC and 2020 COVID crash.
This is the only signal since EWZ’s inception that happened above its 200-day moving average. In other words, this is the only extreme move that came while EWZ was already in an uptrend.
The historical sample is less useful for judging future performance because most prior signals came during major crisis periods.
Takeaway: This is an extreme signal, but it’s different from past signals, which came during major crises. That doesn’t negate yesterday’s move, though. Momentum tends to persist, and with EWZ making new multi-year highs, this could very well be the start of something bigger for Brazil.
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Material, data, and information in this newsletter are for informational purposes only. This is not tax, legal, or investment advice, and does not constitute a suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell securities. TTI believes this information is reliable but does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
These charts and data still scare me, it was high time...