Bitcoin is the best trade in the market right now.
It’s breaking out to nine-month highs. Money has been coming back into the ETFs. And the excitement that usually makes me nervous about a crypto trade still feels a long way off.
That combination gets my attention. It gets even more interesting when I can express the idea through options, decide what I’m willing to lose before entering, and leave room for a much bigger move if this really is the beginning of another cycle higher.
I already have money in this trade. Tonight I want to walk through why, what I’m looking for next, and the entry I’m interested in for fresh capital.
The money is coming back before the excitement
Yesterday’s free newsletter, What If Everybody’s Wrong About Bitcoin?, laid out the bigger picture: Bitcoin is emerging from months of going nowhere while demand through the ETF channel has picked up.
For the week of September 21–25, IBIT took in approximately $1.16 billion. That’s the roughly $1.2 billion week we discussed yesterday.
The ETF matters because it makes Bitcoin accessible through the same brokerage infrastructure that advisers, institutions and ordinary investors already use. Flows don’t identify every buyer, but they do show actual demand through that channel. That carries more weight with me than another bullish prediction on X.
Meanwhile, the mood still feels skeptical. Bitcoin isn’t getting the attention I’d expect from something pushing to nine-month highs.
And that’s part of what I like. Price is improving before the crowd seems particularly interested.
A bigger framework for the next move
Bitcoin has a history of doing very little for a long time, then doing a hell of a lot in a hurry. The question is whether we’re starting another one of those transitions.
One way to put that question into perspective is the Bitcoin Power-Law model.
The basic idea is simple: fit Bitcoin’s historical price to its age. Mathematically, the model describes price as a constant multiplied by time raised to a power. When both price and elapsed time are plotted on logarithmic scales, that relationship becomes a straight line. A chart using ordinary calendar time, like the illustration below, shows it as a curve.
The central line describes the fitted long-term trend. A lower band is often called support or a “floor.” Those are model labels. There is no mechanism forcing Bitcoin to return to the trend, and nothing prevents price from breaking the lower band.
I use it to think about the size of a possible move. The entry still has to come from price, the setup, and what I’m paying for the trade.
Now let’s talk about where that may take us.. and how I want to trade it. Below are the bigger Bitcoin scenario, the charts I’m watching, my IBIT contract and entry limit, and the way I plan to take risk off if the trade works.
