Q3 just wrapped up, and the gap between the headlines and the actual opportunities is worth a closer look. The S&P 500 finished modestly higher. Plenty of the market did not. Bitcoin, meanwhile, had a very different quarter.
The quarter-end Koyfin snapshot above tells the story: SPY +2.38%, QQQ +0.56%, the Dow Jones −2.70%, IWM −7.27%, and SOXX −11.20%. Large-cap indexes held up better than small caps and semiconductors. If you spent the quarter feeling like the market was harder than the S&P suggested, there’s your explanation.
Then there’s Bitcoin: up 42.62% in the chart.
That’s an entirely different quarter. And what interests me most is how little excitement I’m seeing around it. People are still arguing over the usual stocks while Bitcoin has been quietly separating itself from the pack.
The best trade in the market right now might be the one everyone is overlooking. That’s the possibility I explored in this morning’s newsletter, What If Everybody’s Wrong About Bitcoin? Bitcoin is pushing out of a long consolidation while money is returning to the ETFs. I’m watching whether that breakout holds and whether the inflows continue. A strong quarter gets my attention. What happens next determines how I manage the trade.
And there’s a reason to head into the new quarter with some optimism.
Tomorrow, October 1, begins the historically strongest nine-month stretch of the four-year presidential election cycle for the S&P 500: the fourth quarter of the midterm year through the second quarter of the following year. Studies using data back to 1950 show the strength of those three quarters. LPL’s historical study lays out the quarterly pattern, and the Stock Trader’s Almanac identifies the same three-quarter sweet spot.
That takes us from October 2026 through June 2027. It gives me a reason to keep doing the work, keep looking for leadership, and stay open to better conditions ahead. The calendar won’t remove the pullbacks or make every setup work. But a difficult stretch can create opportunities worth preparing for.
I’ll go deeper into that election-cycle history in tomorrow morning’s newsletter. Make sure to look for it.
For tonight, let’s turn that preparation into a focused watchlist. The paid section below covers Constructive Pullbacks and the exact September 30 workbook.
